Posted in N&V

What’s New in September

Interested in previous issues?  Go to the News & Views page or the Arts & Info page.  Scroll to the bottom of the page.  In the center is a “Load More” link.  Click this to display past articles.

 

NEWS & VIEWS

Camping the Easy Way: My New Van – Fifi, by Joni Johnson

The Limits to Emergency Solar Power, by Scott Wetenkamp and Bob Buddemeier

Child Care at RVM? by Connie Kent

ARTS & INFO 

They Dropped the Charges, by Eleanor Lippmann

September in the Library: School’s in Session, by Anne Newins

Garage Invasion- A True Crime Story, by Robert Mumby

Judy’s Dolls, by Judy Hunter, photos by Reina Lopez

Events & Opportunities

Concerts and Performances, Sep-Dec 2023, submitted by Mary Jane Morrison

Classes, Games, and Events, submitted by Sarah Karnatz

in Big, Borrowed, or Both

3550:  the Portland Mirabella quarterly magazine (most recent issue) Click Here

Mirabella Monthly, Newsletter of the Seattle Mirabella (September issue) Click Here

 

 

 

The Limits to Emergency Solar Power

by Scott Wetenkamp and Bob Buddemeier

Loss of electricity is the most common and most probable of the various emergencies that we try to prepare for. Outages of days to a week or more can result from storms (more likely in winter), wildfires (summer and fall), earthquakes (any time), and war, terrorism, or vandalism (any time).  In the case of a major earthquake, an effective hostile attack, or long lines downed by fire, the electrical grid could be down for weeks.

Access to adequate electrical power can be a life-or-death question for some (those dependent on oxygen or home dialysis), and a major health issue for others (those who need air purifiers, CPAP, etc.).  For all of us, it is critical for comfort, convenience and safety (communication devices, light, etc.). We take our power for granted. How many times have you flipped the light switch when you know the power is out?

At RVM, possible sources of emergency power include emergency generators for the high-rise buildings.  For long-term use these require refueling, which may also be interrupted in a disaster.  Fuel use depends on demand, so estimates are approximate, but without refueling, the Manor can generate 1-2 weeks of electricity, the Terrace several days, and the Plaza, a few days.  If it is not clear that refueling will be possible, or if demand is unsustainably high, the Incident Commander might ration use.  There is no backup power for the cottage areas other than provided by the residents.

This article addresses options for residents who need or want access to more, or more reliable, power than provided by the very basic personal  emergency supplies to provide light and communication (for RVM recommendations, log into MyRVM, then click https://files.mwapp.net/FILES/92680409.pdf/  — Residents Preparedness Group advice is at https://files.mwapp.net/downloads/83481020/cottage_electricity1.PDF on MyRVM).  After reviewing some access issues, we’ll address possible needs and uses for battery packs, and the potential for solar generation by cottage dwellers.

Apartment access:  Only the Terrace has emergency electrical outlets in the apartments; in the Manor and the Plaza there are a limited number of outlets in the residential hallways. In the Plaza and the Terrace the emergency outlets are red; in the Manor all outlets are white, and the emergency outlets will need to be identified by testing.  Use will have to be shared as there are far fewer outlets than apartments, and for things that can’t be charged or used in the hallways, extension cords or portable power supplies will be required (some Plaza apartment doors are more than 60 feet from the nearest emergency outlet).  Anyone who might rely on a common area outlet should add a plug-in outlet multiplier to their emergency supplies.  Battery packs may be a useful way for apartment residents to access emergency power, since they can be charged when convenient and used when needed.

Cottage access:  People could relocate to a high-rise, but in a serious emergency or disaster it could take many hours to days before staff or volunteers could assist.  In addition to having a plan for transportation, those who need reliable power should consider a battery supply that could provide at least a day’s worth of electricity, to ride out short outages or provide time to arrange for relocation.

DEMAND AND SUPPLY

We will start by identifying the electrical requirements of some common home medical equipment and basic appliances. Then we will review some battery storage units, and provide estimates of how long they might support specific equipment if fully charged.  Finally we will consider power generation, concentrating on solar power for cottage residents.  We will provide estimates of the equipment that can be supported by a solar generator under various conditions.

Electrical calculations can be confusing.  A watt is a measurement of power, describing the rate at which energy is being used.  Watt-hours are a measure of energy, describing the total amount of energy used over time.  Although we use watts (W; kW = kilowatts = 1,000 watts) for comparison of different conditions or pieces of equipment, our summaries of potential uses require no technical knowledge.  For those interested in understanding how the results were arrived at, we provide Appendix I.

Equipment requirements:  Table 1 shows the electrical power requirements (W) of a variety of appliances, and the energy use (W-hr) based on estimated usage time per day.

The numbers will be used later for comparisons, and don’t require immediate study.

The tabulated numbers are approximate, and will vary depending on the specific equipment and the pattern of use.

Table 1 includes some items that are not strictly essential for survival or safety – kitchen appliances, computer, and TV (assuming the individual’s emergency supplies include a suitable food supply and an emergency radio).  Other items are omitted because their power requirements are unrealistically high.  Space heaters are in this category, but an electric blanket is an effective and relatively low wattage way to keep warm.

Battery power:  There are many small battery packs on the market; some include or can be attached to small solar panels.  These are suitable and useful for recharging cell phones or laptops, and for low-wattage uses such as LED lights.  However, they lack the electrical capacity for high wattage or long term use.

For comparing possible battery and generator scenarios we will use the Jackery line of products.  There are many alternatives, but Jackery is a well-regarded company with a line of power stations and solar panels that provide a good baseline for comparisons.

The Jackery power stations that we will consider are the ones rated for 1000, 1500, 2000, and 3000 W-hr (they also sell smaller ones).  These units have 120  volt AC, 12 volt DC and USB 5 volt DC outputs, and they take approximately 2 hours to charge from a 120 v AC outlet.

Their effectiveness as temporary backup power supplies is easy to assess – divide the power station rating in W-hr by the appliance’s wattage.  Examples:  a 1000 W-hr unit will keep a 5 W LED lit for 200 hours.  A 1500 W-hr unit will power a 100 W CPAP for 15 hours, or about 2 nights.  A 3000 W-hr unit will power a large air purifier on high speed for 50 hours, a refrigerator for 24 hours, a portable O2 concentrator in constant use for 10 hours, and a static concentrator about 6 hours.  If more than one appliance is powered at the same time, simply add the two individual wattages together before dividing.

An additional energy source that many people have is a car battery, which typically contains about 800 W-hrs of 12 volt direct current (DC).  To access this you need a connecting cable with an appropriate plug or battery clamps on one end. For small items like a cell phone, a cigarette lighter-compatible USB port can be used (Figure 2). These are small and quite inexpensive.   Virtually all modern cars already have USB ports. Powering AC devices from a car battery requires an inverter.

Solar (and other) generators:  For long-term power some sort of generator is required, either to provide continuous power or to recharge a battery system.  Since RVM does not permit resident storage of gasoline or diesel fuel, we will focus on the possible use of solar power, in the form of systems that can be deployed and managed by the resident.

Small solar panels, either separate or built into equipment, can be placed on a windowsill for charging a small battery used to power LED lights, cell phones, radios, and other low wattage appliances.  Unlike the large panels, these can be use in apartments as well cottages.  Figures 3 and 4 show some examples.  In Figure 4 the light is collapsible and water proof, with multiple brightness levels; the radio also has built in and removable batteries and a hand-crank charger, as well as a USB port for phone charging.

 

 

For sustained use of higher wattage equipment, much larger panels are required.  At present, RVM does not allow roof or wall installation of solar panels, so we will base our examples on the Jackery 3000 W-hr power station with 6 200-watt solar panels (Figure 5).

Before getting into examples, we need to review some discouraging aspects of solar power.  It seems that 6 200-watt panels should deliver 1200 watts of power, but that rating assumes unrealistically ideal conditions; actual output is probably closer to 160 watts. That assumes that the panels are tracking the sun on a bright sunny day in summer, and even then, there is maximum output only for about 3 hours around noon.

Continually adjusting 6 panels to track the sun is not a realistic option, so we assume that the panels are in the optimum fixed position (facing south and tilted at about the same angle as our degrees of latitude (42o).  Going from tracking to fixed position reduces the energy collected, as does going from mid summer to mid winter, and clouds or smoke. Table 2 presents estimates of daily energy collection (kwh) in different seasons under various conditions.

Table 2: Seasonal and environmental effects on solar energy collection

A solar generator can provide for full-time operation of an appliance only if it collects at least as much energy as the appliance uses.  If we compare Tables 1 and 2, it’s clear that in the worst case (protracted cloudy days in winter), the system can provide continuous power only for the CPAP, the air purifier (which is probably not needed at that time of year), and the smaller household appliances.

The numbers suggest that a portable oxygen concentrator might be supported under good conditions (full sun, spring or fall), but that encounters another problem – storage capacity.  The totals are similar but the energy collection occurs over 12 hours, and the use over 24 hours.  In order to build up enough reserve in the day to operate the concentrator overnight, the power station would have to contain more than 3700 watt-hrs, but its capacity is no more than 3000.  In practice, that would mean there was not enough electricity available for at least 3 night-time hours.

When there are multiple low-wattage devices being used, and especially when there are other battery packs that can be charged, the “excess” electricity can be captured by concentrating use in the daylight hours.  However, battery capacity is a practical limit to year-around support of high-wattage equipment by solar power.

Other considerations:  In the example given above (portable concentrator in good spring or fall weather), the power deficit over 24 hours was only about 1000 watt-hrs, starting from the first daylight hour.  If the battery were fully charged at the beginning, it could discharge for 3-4 days before going to zero, and in midsummer the time would be even longer.

The panels weigh 18 pounds each and the main unit 64 pounds (but it does have wheels and a handle).  Fewer panels and smaller powerstations are more manageable, but have fewer potential uses.

Panels are $700 and the 3000 power station is $2800.  Add in a few cords and accessories and you are well over $7000.  A 1500 watt-hr station with 2 panels is less than $3500, but with considerably less capacity.

Usability at RVM – in case of a major emergency a resident would need to have unshaded outdoor space where the panels could be set up in a suitable orientation.  This would be possible around the lake, but difficult in areas like Horizon, Peach Tree, and much of the Quail Pont Circle area.

See Appendix I for additional considerations.

Overview: This review addresses options for individuals and individual households.  At the corporate or community level there are many other options available.  Solar units of the sort described may be suitable for people who: (1) want or need substantial reserve power even though it might not be fully available under all conditions; (2) can afford the cost; and (3) can perform or arrange for setup and operation.  Such individuals may want to consider this if their residential setting is appropriate.

For most people, settling on one or more smaller battery packs after evaluating potential needs and uses is probably more appropriate.

 

 

Satisfaction Survey

The Resident Satisfaction Survey – Review and Interpretation

RVM and the PRS system

Why RVM may be doing better than the numbers indicate

What else would be good to know

 

by Bob Buddemeier

On July 20 Dave Keaton presented results of the March 2023 Resident Satisfaction Survey.  To see the survey results, log in to MyRVM; the URL for the data slides is https://files.mwapp.net/FILES/141583233.pdf, and for the video of the presentation, https://retirement.app.box.com/s/rzzxupn336i077u98h86r2suj1tkrhcq.  If you are interested in the management and future of RVM, I recommend that you review that material.  As was the case with the presentation of the Strategic Plan, I feel that both the content and the conduct of the Survey presentation were positive contributions to building an informed and engaged resident community.

The results are part of a cycle of surveys of PRS-managed CCRCs, and include comparisons with eleven other communities over resident ratings on 14 factors.  The comparisons provide useful information, but need to be interpreted in terms of systemic differences between RVM and most other members of the PRS group of CCRCs.

The presentation files provide multiple views of the information; for the sake of convenience in reading this article, Table 1 contains some of the key data.

TABLE 1:  Satisfaction Survey, RVM and PRS System

RVM 23 = RVM 2023 survey results for each factor; N 23 = number of respondents for the question, RVM 18 = RVM 2018 survey results; PRS 23 = composite score, all PRS CCRCs

RVM 23 N 23 RVM 18 PRS 23
Overall Satisfaction 4.21 491 4.38 4.28
Quality Accounting 4.35 447 4.31
Administration Responsiveness 3.90 453 3.88
Availability Continuing Care 4.07 202 4.12
Staff Friendliness 4.82 488 4.65 4.79
Resident Assoc. Effectiveness 3.75 404 4.09 3.89
Wellness/Fitness Programs 4.34 417 4.51 4.41
Quality of Transportation 4.70 445 4.60 4.48
Safety/Security of Grounds 4.47 483 4.43 4.37
Quality of Housekeeping 3.84 459 4.04 4.02
Quality of Maintenance 4.47 482 4.34
Quality of Dining Experience 3.01 489 3.86 3.52
Communication During COVID 4.37 462 4.41
Satisfaction w/COVID Response 4.45 466 4.54

Key differences between RVM and other PRS CCRCs:

  • RVM is not associated with a university or other institution, as the Davis and Tempe facilities are.
  • RVM has 900+ residents, compared with 200-300 at many of the other facilities.
  • RVM has both towers and a large number of cottages on a large campus; most others are apartment buildings only, with relatively small grounds.
  • RVM is not in or near a major metropolitan area, unlike the others. This means there is a different lifestyle potential and ambience, and that RVM residents are drawn from more widely dispersed market areas.

What do these difference imply about interpretation of results?

I suggest that one of the most important points is the combination of (a) the number of residents, (b) the variety and dispersion of housing arrangements, and (c) the variety of backgrounds and geographic origins of the residents.  These result in a wide range of attitudes and interests among residents, greater average social distances among individuals and subcommunities, and greater challenges in communication, both among residents and between the administration and residents.

These factors imply that the residents will be less likely to operate on the basis of the same information and assumptions, and that peer interactions will have less influence on collective behavior, so consensus and concerted action will be more difficult to achieve.

This also means that the range of opinions – or survey responses — is likely to be broader at RVM than elsewhere.  I’ll make further comments on this later, but a specific result is that, in the context of this survey, a broader range of opinions is likely to result in a lower score.  The survey defines “average” as 3 on a 5-point scale.  If the average of the results were close to three, more outliers would not necessarily change the score much.  However, for the 14 factors and 12 institutions, 123 of the 168 scores are between 4 and 5, and almost all of the others are between 3 and 4.  This means that introducing more variation into the dataset will reduce some of the highest scores, since there is no way to increase them.

My conclusion: The process of comparison is weighted against RVM, and relatively speaking, we are doing better than we might be expected to based on the scores of the other CCRCs.

So what? one might ask.  If we want to be the best we can be, we should strive for the magic 5.0 in all categories, regardless of what the others do.  Well, yes, given infinite resources.

Unfortunately, we are not given infinite resources, and doing the best we can with what we have means prioritizing goals to maximize satisfaction even if we can’t perfect it.  In turn, that means understanding what the results tell us about where to dedicate resources.  The resources to be dedicated may be dollars to fix known problems in some cases, or human resource time to analyze and identify problems.  In either case, it’s important to identify both the importance of problems, and the ease with which they can be solved.

A few specific examples:

  1. About 27% of RVM respondents (132 people) answered “no” or “don’t know” to the “would you recommend RVM?” question.  That’s somewhat higher than the PRS system value, and considerably higher than both the RVM value in 2018 and the Holleran (survey contractor) benchmark value.  It’s also significant for marketing.  To address that directly, I would want to find out whether the responses were associated with a diffuse negative attitude, or correlated with a few specific dissatisfactions.
  2. Subjective and qualitative factors are difficult to deal with – Administration Responsiveness and Resident Association Effectiveness are examples, especially since these are probably affected by the size and diversity of the resident population to be dealt with. Definition and analysis are needed.
  3. Staff Friendliness probably has an ameliorating influence on some of the other factor ratings, since people are likely to overlook minor deficiencies if an employee is friendly, polite, and responsive to requests. However, almost all of the institutions ranked high on this factor, so it probably isn’t a relative advantage for RVM – but it is something to work hard on maintaining.
  4. Reaching for the low-hanging fruit: something that is missing from the results is a breakdown by residence – at least towers vs. cottages, and maybe further (Manor/Terrace vs Plaza, south vs north villages). If concerns are significantly different, focused responses can be more economical and effective.

A final comment – public opinion and public behavior can be very slow to change.  The problematic Dining Experience factor seems to me to be like steering an ocean liner.  The whole process of menu development, supply, staff acquisition and training and resident information takes a lot of time and effort, and it may take years to find out what difference a change makes.  I think that we are still operating in the shadow of the COVID years, and it is not clear how the many non-equilibrium factors affecting the future are going to shake out – not just for dining, but for the organization as a whole.

It would be nice to have some simple but effective ways to assess resident attitudes and opinions – and especially changes.  Unfortunately I don’t have a specific proposal, but one approach might be modification of Residents Council organization to incorporate a layer of contacts or representatives at the neighborhood level.  In addition to providing information relevant to Council and Administration decision-making, this might also improve the Resident Association Effectiveness rating on the next survey.

 

Appendix for those familiar with some basic statistics:

I am not a statistician, but I am a believer in both use and constructive misuse of statistics to explore and understand datasets.

It might be useful to analyze the distribution of scoring patterns for individual respondents.  It’s encouraging if people think everything is very good, but their answers reduce the ability of the analysis to discriminate among the factor ratings, and don’t provide guidance about what needs to be done.  Reanalysis after excluding individual responses consisting of uniformly high scores (e.g., average >4.5) might provide better differentiation of the factors, as well as a more nearly normal distribution of data.

Another need I see is for a useful assessment of uncertainty and significance.  The data produced by the survey present some problems: on a 5-point scale, median and range do not provide much precision, and the rating distributions are far from the bell-shaped curve norm.  However, standard deviation is a convenient calculation that can provide a semi-quantitative estimate of uncertainty adequate for a rough ranking (or grouping) of factors, even though the distribution doesn’t support conventional quantitative interpretations.

Approximations of the latter sort can be done by reverse-engineering the data that are released, but a firm like Holleran undoubtedly has the capability to make much more sophisticated calculations, and I hope that if this has not already happened, PRS and RVM will request further exploration of some of the points raised above.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

HAPPY THIRD!!!

from the staff of The Complement

This is issue #36 of The Complement, which means that our dedicated band of volunteer journalists has been putting out a monthly issue for three whole years.  Happy Anniversary to us, and especially to you, our readers.

With our accumulated experience and some welcome additions to our staff, we are planning some upgrades and modifications to The Complement.  Two of them are making an initial appearance as prototypes in this issue.

left to right — back: Robert Mumby, Reina Lopez, Tom Conger, Connie Kent, George Yates;  front: Joni Johnson, Bob Buddemeier, Diane Friedlander. 

The event calendar is being reformatted to improve appearance and readability.  The first application is to the list of events submitted by Sarah Karnatz, Director of Community engagement (click here to view).   Once we get this worked out, we’ll move to the Entertainment Committee’s program list — and as we work through this, we will be linking available programs, event descriptions, and performer bios to the listings.

We are going to be presenting somewhat longer and more thorough articles on topics of potential interest — some relevant to RVM, and others of more general interest.  Initially we will identify these with the label “ESSAY.”  The first of these will be George Yates’s article on a musical instrument that few have heard of, but almost everyone has heard — “The Theremin and the Birth of Electronic Music.”

We urge you to join us in our 3-year upgrade.  Please get in touch if you can contribute an article, feature, or review, (or if you have any interest in joining our companionable and productive staff!) and let us know if you have comments on our past and present, or suggestions for the future.  Feel free to contact any of the Complement team:

Bob Buddemeier, Tom Conger, Diane Friedlander, Joni Johnson, Connie Kent, Reina Lopez, Robert Mumby, and George Yates.

And thank you for your attention and encouragement

High Heat Hazards

by Bob Buddemeier

 It’s summer, and the world is hotter than ever.  Not only that, but elderly (or downright old) people are more vulnerable to the dangerous effects of heat.  And, we are getting older as the climate gets warmer.  A bad combination.

The Complement has a long-standing tradition – two, maybe three years – of reissuing an article on preparing for emergencies that are due to, or occur in, high temperatures.  To refresh your survival skills, click the following link.  https://thecomplement.info/2022/03/03/hotsy-totsy-a-review/

However, that article considers only dehydration, which is far from the only way to be killed or disabled by excessive heat.  To round out your worry inventory, we’ll discuss  how you can get killed by heat by: (1)  Not drinking enough; (2)  Drinking too much; or (3)  Spending too much time in the wrong environment, independent of your drinking habits.  Do not rely on this brief summary – see the CDC website on Heat Stress and Heat Related Illnesses – especially heat stroke and heat exhaustion

Before going any further, let’s specify that by “drinking,” we mean drinking water or a beverage that is primarily water.  It’s best to avoid alcohol and caffeine, BUT it is better to have coffee or beer than to go without fluids.  For reasons we’ll get to below, isotonic beverages (e.g., most “sports drinks” like Gatorade) can be desirable in hot weather – these have the same salt concentrations as your body fluids, so they keep your internal chemistry in balance when your water balance starts bouncing around.

The Three Horsemen of Heat:

  1. Dehydration – you sweat and excrete more water than you take in by eating and drinking. You can dehydrate yourself at almost any temperature by not drinking enough, but it’s a lot easier to get in trouble when it is hot and you sweat a lot.  With a combination of high temperature and physical exertion, a person can sweat as much as three gallons per day.

Fortunately, there is a straightforward, simple way to track your hydration state – monitor the color of your urine.  And if you can’t produce anything to look at, take immediate emergency action.  Assuming you can pee in or on something that will facilitate examination, the chart below tells you what you need to do.

  1. Sodium depletion (hyponatremia) – too much water in or going through your system washes out or dilutes the sodium in your body fluids, with potentially disastrous consequences for your physiological processes.  This doesn’t have to be heat-related; diarrhea or vomiting can cause it, especially if lost fluids are replaced with water rather than isotonic fluids.  However, hot weather may inspire people to drink large quantities of water without enough salt intake through food or drink.
  2. Heat stress – your body cools itself by evaporating sweat. If you can’t sweat, or more likely if your sweat can’t evaporate, your body just gets hotter and hotter until your core temperature stays above 104o F for a while.  Then you’re toast, although pretty soggy toast.

When does this happen, other than when you are too dehydrated to sweat?  That’s what the Heat Index is about.  When the air is moist (high humidity), evaporation is inhibited, so your sweat does not cool you off by turning into vapor.  The Heat Index is measured in degrees, but it is temperature adjusted for humidity – and the higher the humidity, the lower the temperature at which you can get into trouble.  The table from the National Weather Service Heat Index page is shown below (click link for more info).  See also the PBS Terra video at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vqBrL8BokSk&t=12s.

IMPORTANT NOTE  — these values are calculated for shade; in direct sun, the risks are higher.

Local note – midday summer humidity in Medford is often in the vicinity of 40%, so when the temperatures get up to 100o, we are well into the Heat Index danger zone.

Symptoms and signs:  Each of the conditions has a list of possible symptoms, but they tend to overlap, and you don’t need an MD to figure out that if you or somebody else has been at an elevated temperature and feels bad, it’s time to take heat stress precautions. In the following list, those in italics are likely to indicate heat stroke, which is a medical emergency.
Confusion, delusions, combativeness; dizziness, headache, exhaustion; cramps, muscle twitching or fatigue; nausea, extreme thirst, scanty or infrequent urination; inability to sweat; seizures or loss of consciousnessThese symptoms can come on and progress very quickly!

What to do: If the symptoms are serious or protracted, get medical help immediately (911).  Get the victim out of the sun, into a cool place if possible, and cool the body (wet cloths, ice packs, cool bath).  If symptoms are mild/moderate (heat exhaustion or dehydration), drinking fluids is indicated, but not if heat stroke is a possibility – that needs to go straight to the Emergency Department.

 

Note:  Symptom and treatment lists are consensus compilations from multiple medical organization websites.

A Fairy God-daughter Story: Scholarship Money Has Changed My Life

Catherine Venegas-Garcia has been my fairy god-daughter since 2021.  I have spent quite a bit of time with her since she graduated from high school and started her studies at SOU.  It has been a pleasure to be her mentor and I will continue as such even though the scholarship itself was a two-year commitment.  She is currently studying Criminal Justice and plans to go to Law School after finishing her bachelor’s degree.    — Joni Johnson

 

by Catherine Venegas-Garcia

Recently, the Supreme Court ruled against affirmative action in college admissions. In other words, race and ethnicity are no longer viable options for admission. Whether we like to admit it or not, the disadvantages won’t go away with the court’s ruling. I am the daughter of Mexican immigrants. And because of this, I was born into a life where I had disadvantages.

So why is diversity so important in universities? Because of the way that I came into this world. Latino students are severely underrepresented in higher education. An opportunity to pursue higher education wasn’t offered to me the same way it was to my peers. I was always two steps behind, and no matter what I did I could never catch up. In high school, I knew that I would need to rely solely on scholarships and grants. If I couldn’t get any funds that way, then I would never have the opportunity to continue higher education. That’s the disadvantage that I faced because of my ethnicity and background. When money is the only thing that prevents students from attending college, then it is clear that pursuing higher education is based on privilege.

Scholarships like the Fairy Godmother Scholarship are so important for diversifying university demographics. What this scholarship has given me is the opportunity to make a bigger impact. Not only within my family but within my community as well. I hope to give back to others the same way that the donors of this scholarship had given to me.

There is freedom because I am not fearful of my financial future. I gained a sense of security because I can focus on my studies and not worry about getting the money to fund my education. The Fairy Godmother Scholarship gave me the prospect to keep myself in school to study what I am passionate about. This chance was given to me, even if it was incredibly difficult to come across. I am planning to continue studying after university, and I hope to attend both graduate school and Law school. When you can afford to visualize a positive outlook on life, then you can take action toward it.

Rode a Rad Rod

RVM: Strategy and the Future

 

By Bob Buddemeier

The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author, and do not necessarily reflect those of any other individuals or organizations.

Introduction

On June 21st Executive Director Dave Keaton made a presentation on Strategic Planning at, and for, RVM.  A video recording of that presentation is available at https://retirement.app.box.com/s/x3ukx66ntcsx6rv2uprq8wu11joto3kq.  If you have not seen it and did not attend the meeting, and if you are even slightly interested in the future of RVM as a business and as a community, I recommend that you watch it.

I have been an administration-watcher over the course of my eight years (and three administrations) at RVM, and this was the most encouraging presentation I have seen in that time.  It was a timely and informative report on an activity that involved RVM and PRS administrators and RVM residents working together to develop an essential product – the Strategic Plan.  Connie Kent has interviewed Dave Keaton and written an article about the planning process that will appear in the next issue of hillTopics.

I see this as an excellent first step.  A financially-oriented management plan provides a practical, quantitative basis for for exerting control over future developments.  However, the institution is much more than just its bottom line, and I think there need to be jointly developed and implemented “strategic plans” addressing and integrating the many other aspects of RVM that make it a desirable retirement residence – and therefore a viable enterprise.  This article presents some thoughts on implementation of the plan and on implications for RVM residents – and some suggestions about additional needs, opportunities, and procedures.

About the Plan:

The plan consists of 13 initiatives, some subdivided into phases or subcategories.  Presentation slides describing the initiatives, plus figures showing priorities and schedules, can be viewed or downloaded at this URL: https://thecomplement.info/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Strategic-Planning-slides.pdf.  Dave described it as a “rolling” three-year plan; he didn’t define that, but I assume that means that the planning process will be revisited as the initial objectives are completed.

The figure below is one of the presentation slides that provides titles and timelines of the initiatives.

Observations based on available information

RVM Resident demographics:  Initiative 7 targets the Rogue Valley as the intended primary market, Initiative 8 identifies CA and HI as secondary markets, and Initiative 9 addresses recruitment of residents whose financial resources don’t match current RVM contracts (a topic related to Initiative 3, concerning how to fill Manor apartment vacancies).

Changes in the origins and financial status of incoming residents may have an impact on the RVM community.  If a larger fraction of new residents comes from the local area:

  • It could strengthen efforts under initiative 11 to build more extensive relationships between RVM and local entities;
  • It could complicate building a patient base for the clinic if more people arrive with local medical arrangements already in place; and
  • It might reduce on-site volunteerism and/or Foundation donations if incoming residents maintain their local charitable or organizational commitments (or if their net worth is lower than has been the case in the past).

Health Care Planning: Initiative 4, which is divided into 4 subcomponents, addresses business and expansion plans for the existing licensed facilities and for Home Care and Residential Living as well.  These are very welcome developments, but there are some closely related issues that I hope are being considered concurrently:

  • How will these developments tie in with the clinic in terms of staffing, facilities, services, and funding?
  • Is there potential for addition of a pharmacy connection (perhaps through Initiative 11 rather than as an on-campus stand-alone)?
  • Can we assume that the Manor Mart will continue to serve as a source of OTC and personal health supplies?
  • Is management of access to, and transitions between, programs or facilities being reviewed or planned? There have been some problems associated with transitions from hospital to the Health Center and/or Home Care.

Financial Planning – and implications: Initiative 5 and 6 (Capital Budget and Labor Retention) are much-needed developments to provide stability and predictability of operations.  However, it seems to me that we need to also be planning for maintaining quality of life in the face of rising expenses.

  • Requirements for a capital reserve fund will need to be reviewed almost continuously, in view of the recent history of shortages and inflation. I suspect that the fund will require substantial input before it comes close to steady-state maintenance.
  • Employee retention efforts will be costly in terms of benefits and salaries – a necessary cost, but more than we are currently spending.
  • Sustainability (Initiative 13) improvement may result in cost savings if we can reduce use of expensive resources, but that depends on acceptance of changes by existing and expected new community members. Maintaining the status quo will become increasingly expensive.

Tentative Conclusions:

In my opinion, the Strategic Plan presented provides a satisfactory initial approach to building long term stability for RVM if:

  1. It is the beginning of an ongoing process;
  2. There are mechanisms for identifying and making changes as needed; and
  3. There is ongoing success in recruiting a resident body that will not only pay the bills, but also participate in maintaining a community that adds value beyond that provided by facilities and staffing.

Suggestions:

With respect to the three conditions stated under Tentative Conclusions (above):

  1. Establish an annual process in which the overall plan and its individual components are reviewed for continued validity of the original assumptions and inputs, and for the achievement of desired progress or goals (see item 2).
  2. At the point of implementation, plans should include measurable criteria for success or desired outcomes, which should be evaluated in each review. Failure to achieve expected goals should result in prompt reconsideration.
  3. Community strength is critically important, but challenging to achieve or measure.
    • With a greater emphasis on a local primary market and a growing number of locally recruited residents, opinions of prospective residents are likely to be influenced by much more than marketing initiatives. Effective, objective surveys of opinions within the RVM community and the larger market community will be desirable, with effective responses to, or uses of, the findings.
    • In my opinion, the resident body is somewhat similar to the physical infrastructure – a diverse collection of entities with a wide range of uses, conditions, importance, and replacement values. However, I feel that the usual approach is to “manage” it without the depth of understanding that is being developed for the physical infrastructure under Initiative 5.  A clearer view of who is here, why, and what they are getting out of or putting into the community would permit much more effectively targeted marketing and retention.
    • Residents provide a substantial number of the “quality of life” features that make RVM an attractive place to live. As staffing has been reduced, reliance on residents has increased, and particularly in leadership or organizational roles.  Some of those roles reside in the Residents Council, with greater or lesser autonomy, but others operate directly under the Foundation, Wellness, or Community Engagement.

As well as individual committees, larger bodies such as the Library, the Residents Preparedness Group, and the Art Committee provide highly desirable services that would not be available if staff needed to be the source.

As we move toward a model of a (probably smaller) body of more experienced staff, I think that we need to find ways to shore up the critical volunteer infrastructure.  Modeling on the successful approach used by the Foundation, this might be done by having each major activity affiliated with a senior staff member or Department, so that there would be a person with authority and access to resources who could step in and assist if organizational or leadership problems arose.

I see this not as a blending of roles or a takeover of responsibilities, but as a recognition of mutual dependency and the need to sustain each other in the interests of our common well-being.

 

The Complement wishes to support RVM and the resident community in developing and implementing a truly comprehensive Strategic Plan.  We welcome your comments and invite submission of relevant letters or articles.

 

Bill Anderson:   A Man Prepared for Emergencies

By Joni Johnson

 

Bill Anderson

Bill Anderson is known as the Tesla guy here on campus.  While a number of people have Teslas, Bill has had at least five.  And his love for his Tesla is a testament for how he sees it keeping him prepared for Emergencies.  But his Tesla is only one of the many marvelous gadgets he has for being prepared for emergencies.

Bill has been involved in Emergency Preparedness since a teenager.  He told me how, as a young boy in Fargo, North Dakota, he was commandeered as a ham radio operator to communicate between train dispatchers during a raging blizzard.  The snow was piled so high that there was absolutely no transportation moving within a 50 mile radius of Fargo.  He agreed to help the two major railroad dispatchers.  He was taken to an undisclosed location, and for one week, he slept on the floor and ate sandwiches so that using his ham radio equipment, he could help the train dispatchers talk to each other.

That experience started him on a life-long interest in emergency preparedness.  When he arrived at RVM in 2008 he realized that even though the Manor would do all it could to ensure his safety, it really was each man for himself in terms of complete readiness.  What would happen in a fire?  What if an earthquake closed down Highway 5 and/or his house was destroyed?  He realized he wanted to protect himself and his wife as much as he could.

But Bill has formulated a longer list to protect himself in a variety of emergency situations.  His question was, What would he need that quite possibly might not be available from the Manor during a fire evacuation or an earthquake?  The four major items are power, water, food and transportation. 

POWER

During our interview, Bill and I spent the next hour discussing his wonderful array of gadgets and how they would work in an emergency.  I first met Bill when I did an article on emergency generators.  Many generators are gas powered, and gasoline storage isn’t allowed at RVM.  He has two Jackery 1500s. These are high-capacity portable battery systems that can be charged with solar panels or electricity.  These would allow him to keep his house well lit and his refrigerator going in case of a blackout. He also has the solar cells that would keep the batteries juiced up in case of a long power outage.

I was looking for options for myself and my husband, Tom.  Tom used a portable oxygen concentrator and needed a way to recharge its batteries in case of an emergency power outage.  Two hours of no power would be fine, but much longer could be a disaster.  And while the Manor and Plaza have emergency generators, Tom would have had to sit in chair near the power outlet for as long as the power outage lasted.  That would not have been very practical.  We decided on a Jackery 1000 with solar panels that cost about $1500.  It was the largest electric power source that I personally could easily move from place to place.  With an extra set of concentrator batteries and a battery charger, this would allow Tom to recharge his batteries over and over again.  It addition, it would power the TV and some light sources.  The refrigerator would have required too much wattage.  The larger Jackery would have taken care of that. This link is to an article written for The Complement comparing a variety of battery powered sources.

https://thecomplement.info/2021/09/30/emergency-power-at-home-why-what-and-how/

Anyone living in the Plaza, Terrace and Manor doesn’t have to go anywhere during a fire.  They can shelter in place in their apartment.  However, even though the high-rises have generators, those would mostly light up the hallways and not provide power to each apartment.  So a power outage is something to consider, since it would shut down light and most communication channels campus-wide as well as heating and cooling in the cottages.  Other than possible power outages, those in cottages should be fine unless there is imminent danger.  RVM has plans for helping people in cottages who are seriously threatened by fire to get to the Plaza or the Manor. This will be on a street-by-street basis.

So Tom and I felt fairly safe in case of an extended power outage.  And Bill was an enormous help in making a decision about what to buy.

WATER

Safe drinking water and food are clearly high on the list.  Bill has boxes of water and food to last for several weeks that he bought off the internet from a company named Patriot. But you need room for that. I don’t have it in my two-bedroom cottage.  However, Manor security has a number of emergency kits that would provide food, medical supplies, mylar blankets and many other items – including a small amount of water — for short term use.  I bought several of these. The cost for these kits ranges from $42.99 to $139.99. Go to    https://files.mwapp.net/FILES/105136059.pdf.  RVM will charge your account and the kits show up on your doorstep.

TRANSPORTATION

Bill loves his Tesla model Y because he can charge it from his Jackery batteries and in case of a gasoline shortage, he could still get in his car and leave.  In addition, because it is an SUV, he can sleep in the car if necessary.  During the Almeda fire, Bill headed out to the Expo with his Tesla, a mattress for the car and food and water. All was well. For more information on this model Tesla, go to https://www.tesla.com/modely

FOOD

Bill has enough freeze-dried long lasting food to last him for a month or more.  He bought his from Patriot as well.  Costco often has packages, and all camping stores have freeze dried food.  In the emergency kit mention above, there are enough food bars to last for several days.

Bill’s love of his Tesla and his plans to use it in case of a major emergency that would let him travel farther away is great.  But many of us do not have Teslas, or even cars, for that matter.  However, some of Bill’s gadgets could certainly be useful.

In addition to food, water and a mattress, Bill has the following at his fingertips (all of which can fit in his car in case he has to leave).  Some of these could be useful, even if you plan to stay at RVM. I’ve starred (*) those.  Items with double stars (**) would require high capacity storage batteries or solar panels for use.

Sun Powered Thermos

*          water filter

*          Sun powered thermos

*          Solar cells for phones

*          Lanterns

**        portable refrigerator/freezer by Bodega

**        small electric frying pan

tent and tent mattress just in case he doesn’t want to sleep in his car

biolite camping stove

folding camping table

Fire is one thing. In case of an earthquake, there are many other factors to consider.  You need to decide what items will be required to keep you safe and somewhat comfortable for at least a week without utilities (electricity, gas, running water, sewer), or access to shopping.   Everyone’s situation is different in detail, but you can find general advice on personal emergency preparedness by looking at the Emergency Preparedness list as part of the link on MyRvm mentioned above.

Bill is ready for whatever emergency, come what may.  If any of you camp, you may already have many of these items. If not, Amazon, Bimart or Big Lots are at your command.  It is wise to be prepared.  One never knows. Thank you Bill!

The Evening Turkey Show